Description: Investment Fallacies: Extended periods of robust macroeconomic growth are healthy for investing.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Simulation of Long-Term Stock Returns: Fat-Tails and Mean Reversion

Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: This paper suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, by selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, where a reasonable number of points are specified on each curve such as 12. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the interest rate generator used.

Description: This paper explores Indian futures and options market as a market for hedging by equity holders. The authors have tried to examine optimal hedge ratio and hedge efficiency, and to provide empirical evidence from India.

Description: This paper demonstrates that using a conditional probability approach to analyzing investment data yields investment forecast and stock option pricing models which more closely match actual market data, and it demonstrates the impact that conditional probabilities could have on CAPM beta and risk premia calculations. Reprinted from: Journal of Financial and Economic Practice, Vol. 6 No. 2 Spring 2006.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Mathematical modeling of social phenomena

Description: This is a presentation from 39th Actuarial Research Conference, 8/5-7/2004, University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa. The aim of this paper is to consider economic capital for a multi-line insurer and the fair allocation to lines of business. In addition, this paper also allows for a model with assets, liabilities and insolvency exchange option fairly priced, complete markets and no market frictions.

Description: This paper discusses both the theoretical and the application aspects of stress testing in managing enterprise risks. Effective stress testing maximizes the risk adjusted enterprise profit by controlling major risks financial, strategic, operational and hazard upon identifying risk metrics and modeling the correlations. A case study is included for demonstration purposes.

Description: Much of the push for ERM has come from regulators and rating agencies, but it is being applied in internal company decision-making as well. This paper reviews the progress made and the needs still outstanding in two key areas of application: optimal capital level for an insurer and risk-adjusted profitability of business units. The basic conclusion is that progress has been made in these areas, but more is needed. Building models is not emphasized—it will be assumed that a state-of-the art model is available. The emphasis is on using such models in decision-making.